Mock Analysis

After flailing last year and finishing somewhere in the 107 range in TheHuddleReport Mock Draft contest (terrible), I became determined to never finish in the triple digits again (huge goal right). Then I had a kid, and remembered my day job and spent the next 11 months or so casually reading draft articles while throwing darts at a picture of Josh Norris (only kidding, big fan), but basically ignoring all the things a good mocker usually actually pays attention to…

So, as we approach the draft in one short week, I pulled out my tear-stained notes from post-draft last year, grabbed a sizable group of the most accurate mockers’ mock drafts, and sat down to understand the perceived odds of each team taking a certain player, or at the very least which position groups are most likely at each slot. Below is what I found out:

The mocks I pulled are all from the top 25 5 year averages on TheHuddleReport, OR at least from a past champion who has competed at least three times in the past five years.

From those mocks, there were 45 different players spread across Round 1. Average selection spot is below:

So, no surprises up top… Aidan and Travon and Ickey lead the way, and to me are the most likely first three picks. From there, it’s more chalk, until…

I don’t get Drake London ahead of Jameson Williams, though that may be due to some of these mocks being published before recent news of Williams’ accelerated recovery from a January injury. Williams will go before London.

Kyler Gordon is also tracking up, and I believe he’ll be selected before Andrew Booth and Kaiir Elam, and possibly even before his T-rex teammate, the short-armed Trent McDuffie (who is an awesome player regardless of arm length). Tyler Smith shows up higher than I expected, and I think it’s totally possible he’s off the board before the more heralded Tyler Linderbaum, but I’m not as big a fan of Smith’s.

Other notes… Lewis Cine is getting some heat as a first-rounder the closer we get… David Ojabo will not be a first rounder… and has dropped significantly here due to a really unfortunate injury. Hate that for him… George Pickens might be the most underrated player in this class. I have no idea why people think Christian Watson is a spicy late first pick, but don’t think Pickens has the same odds (Watson going average of 2 picks higher than Pickens)… Nakobe Dean has been lost in some of the Devin Lloyd hype of late, but he’s got a real shot at hearing his name late on Day 1… Boye Mafe, Zion Johnson, and Jahan Dotson are my three choices for guys who will hear their names called MUCH earlier than most are thinking.

Ok, onto the team/player pairings…

🐆 1. Jaguars

100% of the mocks surveyed have the Jags taking an edge rusher, 60% with Aidan Hutchinson, 40% with Travon Walker. It’ll be Walker, IMO. Trent Baalke loves his size and overall athleticism, he hates Jim Harbaugh, and Walker’s ability to move all around the defense could have a Micah Parsons-esque impact on this D if he plays up to potential.

🦁 2. Lions

90% of the mocks surveyed have an edge rusher here, too. The only outliers were those holding onto Malik Willis hope. If Walker goes one, this is a lightning-quick pick of Hutchinson. He led the way with 40% of the mocks, followed by Walker and Kayvon Thibodeaux at 20% each.

🐂 3. Texans

Ok, it doesn’t get any more interesting here… The Texans were 70% to take an offensive tackle, with Ickey Ekwonu garnering 40%, followed by Evan Neal at 30%. There was some hope for Travon Walker, but he won’t be here. Sauce Gardner has also been a new mention as a real possibility here. I love it. He’s the third best player in this class, with the potential to be a hall of fame corner on Champ Bailey’s level.

✈️ 4. Jets

The first real split here, as 50% see the Jets going edge early, while 40% have them grabbing a corner. Assuming Gardner actually goes top 3, that’ll shift in a big way to the edge advantage. Kayvon Thibodeaux is the leader in the clubhouse, with the aforementioned Gardner nipping at his heels (45%, 35%)

🗽 5. Giants

Another slam dunk… 90% of mockers see the Giants addressing the offensive line here, which makes sense when you consider how likely it is that at least one of the top two guys at that position makes it to pick 5. Evan Neal led the way (Bama connection with Brian Daboll…?) with 40%, followed by Ekwonu at 30%, and Charles Cross (overrated) at 20%.

🐈‍⬛ 6. Panthers

Sticking with the theme, Carolina is also likely to take a blindside if these mocks are to be trusted. 70% thought a left tackle would be the pick (40% for Cross, 20% for Ekwonu, 10% for Neal), Kenny Pickett becomes our first quarterback to make a significant appearance with 20% of the mocks going his way, though I’m not sure his boring ceiling fits the Scott Fitterer desire for excitement at the position. I know Matt Rhule gets final say, but does he was Kenny Pickett more than he wants to trot out his identical twins Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield or Jimmy G, who are much more expensive, sure, but also much better bets to drive short-term success for a guy who is likely worried about his job.

🗽 7. Giants

I honestly thought this number would be higher, but still 60% of mocks have the Giants finding a cornerback for Wink Martindale’s defense here. The rest were a mix of tackles from the few who didn’t go that way at 5th overall, or pass rushers, which isn’t a small need either. Sauce Gardner took 50% of the votes himself.

🪶 8. Falcons

I must be the last person on earth who doesn’t believe the Falcons will take a wide receiver in the top 10 one year after taking a tight end in the top 5. Have you seen this roster? That would be borderline criminal. Still, receivers accounted for 60% of the picks here in our mock survey, and Garrett Wilson was all but one of those. I think any of the top four pass rushers, the top two corners, or even a Devin Lloyd or Kyle Hamilton is much much more likely. However, last year we saw the Panthers eschew a QB for the top “skill” defender, and I did write down that at some point, even in the face of glaring needs with strong value options, a team will take the top player at a skill position that hasn’t been tapped.

🐦 9. Seahawks

This team… I read Seahawksdraftblog where Rob Staton does an incredible job covering the team, and he’s got me convinced that building an explosive offensive line (even if, or especially if, it means trading back) is the way Seattle wants to go. That said, so many mocks had Derek Stingley here, that corner led the way with 40% of the selections. All Stingley. Devin Lloyd, a popular pick as the unpopular pick, came up second with 20%, but I wouldn’t rule out Zion Johnson or Trevor Penning, more likely in a trade down scenario, but this is Seattle so it wouldn’t be that shocking if either player happens at 9, either.

✈️ 10. Jets

This is the spot everyone sees a receiver going to New York, which makes sense considering the talent at other spots likely to be available at 4th overall. 50% see a pass catcher here, with Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jameson Williams all carrying equal votes. However, the most mocked individual player here is Jermaine Johnson, who I don’t think will come close to lasting this long, but would be an excellent choice if the Jets eschew edge at four.

🐗 11. Commanders

It’s either Kyle Hamilton or a receiver. That’s it. 50% see Hamilton as the fit, while the other half believes Washington will give Carson Wentz a new weapon. Garrett Wilson was more than twice as popular as any other pass catcher, including Chris Olave and Jameson Williams, but Hamilton was the easy leader among individual players. Ron Rivera rarely travels to pro days, and when he does it means something, so the fact that he went to watch the Ohio State receivers is a big deal… but he also loves versatile linebacker/safety types (Thomas Davis, Shaq Thompson, Jamin Davis, Landon Collins, etc.), so pick your poison. The Commanders did have a much different defense with healthy safeties last year though…

👩‍🎤 12. Vikings

One of the highest position percentages left on the board, it seems to most that the Vikings are going corner. They certainly need one (or two), again. And with so many believing Derek Stingley would be available (40% of the mocks liked him here), it makes sense. Trent McDuffie finished second among individuals with 30% of the picks, giving Minnesota a 70% chance to take a CB according to the experts. However, when they take a wide receiver so they can run 11 personnel 83% of the time like Kevin O’Connell did in LA, just remember you heard it here first.

🐂 13. Texans

As much as everyone agreed the Texans would go OT at 3, the consensus is even stronger here that they’ll look to beef up the front seven for new coach Lovie Smith at 13. An even split between edge rusher and interior d-lineman led to 80% of mockers prescribing a big boy on defense. Jordan Davis led the way with 30% of the picks, which makes sense considering he’s the most athletic DT of all time. George Karlaftis and Jermaine Johnson rounded it out with 20% each.

🐧 14. Ravens

This is where we start to see some good split opinions. Edge rusher leads the way for a team trotting out Tyus Bowser and Jayson Oweh, both fresh off injuries, at pass rusher, especially after Baltimore missed out on a reunion with Za’Darius Smith. George Karlaftis took 30%, the highest for any individual player, with 40% of the picks believing help is needed at edge. Trevor Penning nabbed 20%, along with Devin Lloyd, but it was a mixed bag otherwise for a team who could certainly move around the board to ensure they aren’t picking first in the second tier of players.

🦅 15. Eagles

Jalen Reagor and JJAW have been through it, and not for bad reason, so it should come as no surprise that 80% of our mockers went receiver for the Eagles here. Chris Olave, who to me seems a little too similar to Devonta Smith and Reagor, led the way with 40%, followed by Drake London at 30%. London seems like a more likely nab here, as does Treylon Burks, because they would add a dimension that Philly currently lacks outside - size. Trent McDuffie (20%) makes sense here, too, if the Eagles look on the other side of the ball. But a move up for an offensive lineman wouldn’t surprise me at all for a team looking to continue their ground dominance.

⚜️ 16. Saints

Finally, my team. And yeah, no surprise, we need a tackle. 70% of mockers agreed. Trevor Penning got half the picks here, followed by Charles Cross (20%), who I go back and forth on believing will be available here… I don’t love the idea of an air-raid guy, but if we’re going to throw the ball around with Jameis Winston, we beggars can’t be choosers. I also don’t love Trevor Penning, but he has more style to his game than his nastiness (or attempted nastiness) at the Senior Bowl would have you believe, but he seems to be popular. Malik Willis represented the quarterbacks (not happening) with 20%, as well.

⚡️ 17. Chargers

Exactly what you’d expect - split opinions on how to best help Justin Herbert. 40% to offensive line, 40% to receivers. Zion Johnson, a super underrated player who I think could go much earlier than anyone else seems to, grabbed a whopping 20% of the vote, alongside Jameson Williams and Trevor Penning. In my final mock, this feels like a great spot for Penning, assuming the Saints can land Cross.

🦅 18. Eagles

Great trade, we pick behind the team we traded with twice… No matter here. With most assuming the Saints need to double dip on offense, the Eagles do New Orelans a favor with 90% of the picks coming on the defensive side of the ball. The fun part starts with who those individuals are, though. Devin Lloyd and Jordan Davis garnered twice as many selections as any other individual player, with 20% each. And even though Howie Roseman doesn’t draft linebackers in the first round, Lloyd is not your average off-ball guy. After watching a swiss army LB transform the division rival Cowboys last season, I think taking a chance on a guy who plays like a diet version of him might not be so far-fetched. Davis is self-explanatory.

⚜️ 19. Saints

And here’s where we get our receiver. 60% of the picks went to that spot among the experts, with Jameson Williams netting 40% of those on his own. If he makes it this far, and he won’t there’s really no chance so why get excited about it, he’d be a perfect complement to Michael Thomas and would give Jameis a true top-popper out wide. More than likely, the Saints will be picking between Jahan Dotson and Chris Olave if they want that type of target.

👷‍♂️ 20. Steelers

There’s a pick coming up with 100% of the votes going toward a single position, but the Steelers being 90% likely to take a quarterback isn’t far off from that unanimity. Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett split it evenly, at 40% apiece, with Desmond Ridder grabbing a single vote, as well. Willis is starting to feel like the same type of lock that Najee Harris became around this time last year. I think he’ll last, but don’t be surprised to see Pitt get aggressive for their guy, like they did for Devin Bush. If they want Willis bad enough, they’ll go get him. Pickett would just give them two Mitch Trubiskys.

🇺🇸 21. Patriots

Surprise surprise… no consensus. No one garnered more than 20% of the picks here, though 40% of the picks were on the interior of the offensive line (20% Kenyon Green, 20% Zion Johnson). Dax Hill also grabbed 20%. So it seems the theme for the Patriots is taking guys who will fill in for lost starters this year (Shaq Mason) or next year (Devin McCourty). It’s hard to get a read on this team, but Hill feels like a fit to me. Though it has been a minute since New England spent a first-rounder on the DL, which is not a rare or overly unsuccesful spot for them focus early (Malcolm Brown, Dominique Easley, Chandler Jones, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Richard Seymour).

🧀 22. Packers

Remember when I said there as a pick with 100% position consensus? Boom… Packers are apparently 100% taking a wide receiver here. Like they always do. I mean, Treylon Burks nabbing half of those picks is an excellent fit. He’d be an early contributor in a variety of ways, and while he has to prove he can be anywhere near as effective as Deebo Samuel, he’d be a whole hell of a lot cheaper. Guys like Christian Watson, Jahan Dotson, and even George Pickens (love that pick actually) showed up, too, but if Burks is on the board, it’s getting harder to believe he won’t shouldn’t be the pick.

🐤 23. Cardinals

I haven’t typed this much in a while. Let’s go. Lots of love for a Christian Kirk replacement here, which is a pretty mean thing to say about Rondale Moore, but I get it. Burks again was popular, relatively, but there wasn’t much consensus here as Kenyon Green and Zion Johnson were equally as popular. The only pick with any percentage advantage was Devonte Wyatt (25%). Receivers accounted for 35%, while DL hit the same mark. I think this is a classic BPA situation, though you’d have to convince me it’s more important to replace Kirk than it is to replace Chandler Jones, assuming the value is comparable between available pass rushers and receivers.

🤠 24. Cowboys

I’m not sure they have the ammunition this year, but it would be pretty Cowboys-y to mortgage the future to go up and get Evan Neal. I mean, I can see it. The defense took major strides last season and should be decent enough. There’s a big need at receiver, but keeping Dak Prescott clean has to be priority 1. Which is why 50% of the picks show an interior offensive lineman as the pick, with 60% addressing the OL overall. Losing La’el Collins and Connor Williams will do that to a team, especially as Tyron Smith starts to wear down. I think they’ll try to move up, but if they can’t they’ll pray Jerry Jones forgets Treylon Burks went to Arkansas if both he and the top two or three interior offensive linemen are still on the board at 24.

🦬 25. Bills

It’s finally coming around that the Bills, who couldn’t stop the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, need a cornerback (or two). Especially after losing Levi Wallace. Here, we see an angle or two to upgrade… I’m not as big a fan of Kaiir Elam (20%) or Andrew Booth (15%), but I do love Kyler Gordon (10%), and the fact that 60% see a DB of some sort as the right call matches nicely with the value likely to be available here. Breece Hall is a great running back, for sure, and the Bills do need to ease the load on Josh Allen, but I disagree with the 20% who think they’ll look at RB in Round 1.

🗡 26. Titans

I am firmly in the camp that believes this is the year for Tennessee to draft a quarterback. It’s not a great class, sure, but you’ll likely get a better pick without having to trade or fail than you would in a normal year, and while this class isn’t polished, it’s not barren on potential. Matt Corral would be my pick with his success in play action and his ability to sit behind Ryan Tannehill early on. Kenny Pickett, however, led the way with 20% of the individual picks, helping QB be the most popular position at 40%, which is less a function of team fit, IMO, than it is an “oh shit we forgot to mock Kenny Pickett somewhere” reaction. Other areas like IOL (30%) and WR (20%) make sense, too, especially if the Titans lose AJ Brown.

🏴‍☠️ 27. Buccaneers

The Bucs brought back Tom Brady, not sure if you heard. So they idea that they would be 30% likely to protect the fearsome interior rush by drafting an interior OL makes sense. Tyler Smith saw 20% of the picks. The trenches on the other side are a little bare, as well, with no real difference makers on the roster next to Vita Vea. That’s where Devonte Wyatt (30%) and Travis Jones (20%) come in. But I like Logan Hall as a better complement than Jones, and as a more likely candidate to actually be available at 27 than Wyatt.

🧀 28. Packers

There was a time, for a couple weeks after the Davante Adams trade, where everyone thought it’d be hilarious to mock two receivers to the Packers in the first round. But now that we’ve been immunized against that lark, the projections are coming in stronger on the other side of the ball. 20% picked Christian Watson here, but no one had the Packers double-dipping at the position. Instead, Nakobe Dean leads the defensive side of the picks with 20% of his own, tied with Devonte Wyatt (he won’t be here) and ahead of Boye Mafe (15%) and Travis Jones (10%).

🏹 29. Chiefs

With Tyreek Hill gone, and the laughable prospect of Juju Smith-Schuster somehow replacing him, you’d think the Chiefs would be overwhelming favorites to take a pass catcher at 29. However, WR (40%) came in second to CB (50%), with Andrew Booth (25%) and Kaiir Elam (25%) leading the way. Both are solid fits, but I like Kyler Gordon (15%) here if they go that route. If a receiver is the choice, it sounds like Jahan Dotson fits the bill, with 30% believing the Chiefs will find a Tyreek Hill replacement who spends less time on his phone.

🏹 30. Chiefs

These guys again. Ok, so maybe no receiver first, maybe no corner first, and maybe the Chiefs focus on replacing some of the pop that Melvin Ingram brought from the outside toward the end of last year. Boye Mafe, if he makes it past Baltimore at 14, is a solid choice here with 30% of the picks, 60% of which went to edge rusher overall. Kansas City cannot compete for the prizes they’re eyeing without adding some juice to the edge, especially if the offense sputters at all in the wake of the Tyreek Hill trade. Kyler Gordon showed up again here, too, at 20%, followed by Arnold Ebiketie (10%) and George Karlaftis (10%), who has maybe the widest range of any player in Round 1.

🐅 31. Bengals

They just don’t learn. Every asshat with a twitter account tried to tell the Bengals that drafting Jamar Chase over Penei Sewell would lead to the death of Joe Burrow and the extinction of their franchise. And after losing the Super Bowl, I sure hope those thumbs are tweeting out messages of pure unadulterated vindication. But hey, the Bengals listened. They brought in La’El Collins, Ted Karras, and Alex Cappa in the hopes that this plucky franchise can finally make something of itself. Still, it’s not enough for our mockers who overwhelmingly gave the Bengals another blocker (70%). Tyler Linderbaum wins this year’s prize as the lowest round one pick to be near consensus, with 50% of the picks sending him to Cincy. He’s a center only though, so unless a reshuffle is coming, I think it’s far more likely the Bengals take a guy like Logan Hall or a falling corner.

🦁 32. Lions

We did it. Last one. Here’s the “oh shit we forgot to mock Desmond Ridder somewhere” slot. He led the way with 40% of the picks, and Matt Corral round out the QBs with the other 20%. I think Corral is the toughest QB in this class, and fits a knee-biting culture infinitely better than Ridder, but Ridder has excellent measurables and a hell of a record, so maybe that’s enough to overlook his godawful ball placement. Either way, it’s very likely that someone uses the 32nd pick to ensure they have the chance at a fifth-year option on their QB. Or, or, hear me out, the Lions could draft a safety like Lewis Cine (15%) or Dax Hill (10%).