final mock draft

1. bears: caleb williams

QB • USC

Nothing left to say here. Clearly Ryan Poles has his guy, and believes that Caleb Williams is the answer to the Bears ongoing QB woes. I get it, he has the highest ceiling of any passer in this class. Easy call, right call. Now please wear #0 to piss everyone off.

2. commanders: jayden daniels

QB • LSU

Too much has been made of “fitting Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.” Drake Maye actually ran the air raid well his first year. But the real kicker here to me is that new GM Adam Peters just saw his old team whiff on limited experience with high upside. Daniels has loads of starts, and he has a skillset that can come in and provide excitement and the experience that should soothe concerns about repeating the Trey Lance mistake in the Bay. Plus, new head coach Dan Quinn isn’t lying when he says he wants the guy who keeps opposing defensive coordinators up at night. Daniels dual-threat ability adds an element there that tips the scales.

3. patriots: drake maye

QB • North Carolina

Jacoby Brissett is not a long-term answer, but he’s a perfect bridge for Maye, and Jerod Mayo believes, as does the rest of this organization, that they won’t be picking this high again. Maye can sit a little, and provides hope and upside at the QB spot. He’s a strong fit for Alex Van Pelt’s offense, and although there will be trade attempts, I think the Patriots have to get their guy now. Eliot Wolf comes from a family who did find success at the QB spot later than this, but I’m just not a believer in the second tier of QBs. Plus, although some believe Wolf’s conviction about Baker Mayfield leans toward JJ McCarthy being the call, I think it means he wants a more gunslinger mentality, willingness to take chances, and the kind of arm strength to stress defenses. That’s more Maye than JJ, to me.

4. cardinals: marvin harrison jr

WR • Ohio State

At some point, Arizona, which holds the most draft capital in the entire 2024 class, has to stick and pick talent (I actually think it’s way more likely they package picks and move UP from 27). And what better time to do so than with a guy like Harrison Jr staring you in the face. When Monti Ossenfort was in Tennessee, he saw the impact a big body like AJ Brown could have on the receiving corps, and Jonathan Gannon saw how much easier life was on his defense by way of the same player. I believe Malik Nabers is very much in play here, as his YAC capabilities bring a dynamic sorely lacking in Arizona’s current WR group, but at the end of the day, Harrison Jr is about as clean as it gets out wide, and the Cardinals stay at four and add an instant impact player for Kyler Murray.

5. chargers: jc latham

OT • Alabama

Jim Harbaugh wants to make his mark on this roster. Latham has the potential to be the best run blocking right tackle in this class. I thought he played well against Michigan in the Rose Bowl, which Harbaugh saw up close, and I believe he’s similar to Anthony Davis, who played RT for Harbaugh the last time he coached at this level. The fact that he’s “never taken OL this high before” is because last time he joined a team with three first rounders already holding down starting spots up front. Lock it in. I think. Maybe in a trade back?

6. giants: malik nabers

WR • LSU

Big Blue has had some success with dynamic players with dynamic personalities from the LSU WR room before, and the fit in Brian Daboll’s offense is damn near perfect. I know there are rumblings about big-city life being too much for Nabers, and teams are picking at his temperament, but that didn’t shy Joe Schoen away from Kayvon Thibodeaux, and with such a massive need at WR1, I think the prospect of grabbing Nabers in almost the same slot is too tempting to pass up. Odunze is a possibility here, but I don’t see the Giants trading up for a passer while they’re still paying Daniel Jones, and Nabers helps replace the missing electricity from the loss of Saquon Barkley.

7. titans: joe alt

OT • Notre Dame

I mean, much like the first pick, there’s not much to say here… I know some think a receiver is possible here, but they just paid Calvin Ridley, still have DeAndre Hopkins, and this class is deep and loaded if you’re looking for a WR3. And I hear people argue that bringing in the Callahan boys means you don’t have to invest in OL because Brian and his dad Bill can work with anyone, but how much sense does that make? Why would you grab those guys and give them inferior talent to work with when you have a massive hole at left tackle. Alt and last year’s first rounder Peter Skoronski can give young QB Will Levis a stalwart wall on the left side, which allows for the greatest chance of success and gives you a clear evaluation of what you actually have under center. Easy call.

8. falcons: dallas turner

ED • Alabama

Drafting 8th again… three years in a row. So far that’s netted the Falcons a WR1 and an RB 1. And while I get it would be tempting to trade back and let a receiver-needy team move up for Rome Odunze (which is very possible), Terry Fontenot has shown a stick and pick mentality to date. Still, while Dallas Turner may not be the highest rated player on his board, this Falcons team (like just about every single one in Atlanta for the past two decades) badly needs an injection of elite pass rushing talent. After what Raheem Morris did with Byron Young last season, adding a juiced up version should pay dividends for the secondary. I can see Terrion Arnold here, too, but at some point Atlanta has to address the edge spot. Fontenot comes from New Orleans, where pass rusher was often the call early.

9. bears: brock bowers

TE • Georgia

Admittedly, I’m purposely zigging here where other have zagged. I know Travis Kelce was picked in the third round, and I’m aware Cole Kmet (and I guess Gerald Everett) is on the roster. But Shane Waldron runs some 12, and Ryan Poles comes from an organization that has run the league by virtue of a young dynamic passer and his best friend the crafty YAC master tight end. I think that’s worth recreating here.

10. jets: rome odunze

WR • Washington

Maybe Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been a fan of rookie pass catchers in the past because he’s never had one drafted for him in Round 1. That changes here. Odunze is polished, pro-ready, and fits the Jets’ desire to win NOW. They don’t have time for contingency plans. They have to load up with targets for Rodgers, and hope he stays healthy, along with his OL and his new receiver, Mike Williams. Tall ask, but shooters shoot.

11. vikings: jj mccarthy

QB • Michigan

If the Vikings can pull off sitting at 11 and grabbing the QB they’ve seemingly been connected to all offseason, damn. Good for them. I think they’d prefer Maye, but I also think they love McCarthy, are a perfect cradle for him, don’t need to rush him onto the field, and are too damn analytically driven to overpay for a move up.

12. broncos: byron murphy ii

IDL • Texas

I am almost certain the Broncos are open for business as they look to pick up a selection between this one and their current next one down at 76. And while edge rusher and cornerback make sense, the interior pressure and steadfast stoning of the run game provided by Murphy make him a perfect fit for a team whose defensive line is not currently NFL caliber. People constantly talk about Sean Payton’s love for pass rushers, which Murphy can provide from a more impactful spot against the premier passers in this division, but if you look at his Saints days, you’ll see he also invested early in guys like Sheldon Rankins and Sedrick Ellis when he was trying to give his defense an identity. With Dallas Turner off the board, I believe Murphy will be the call if Denver stays at 12.

13. raiders: quinyon mitchell

CB • Toledo

Yeah, I know Tom Telesco has never taken a Group of 5 player in the first round. And yes there is smoke around Michael Penix. Like there was for Will Levis and the Colts last year. And Malik Willis and the Steelers. And Geno Smith. And on and on. The Raiders have no viable outside corners and they play in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. They’ll maybe trade back into Round 1 for a QB, but Mitchell fits, has excellent speed, and solves a major need.

14. saints: olu fashanu

OT• Penn State

The Saints are in a terrible spot along the offensive line. Trevor Penning has predictably been a bust to this point on the left side, and suddenly Ryan Ramczyk is behind on rehab and would leave a massive hole at RT if he can’t go. This team over-invested in Derek Carr, has an aging roster, and needs a miracle to make the playoffs with the way Atlanta and Tampa currently look (hell, even Carolina has done more to improve their roster than New Orleans). Fashanu, if available, should be a one-second, turn-the-card-in-now moment for Mickey Loomis.

15. colts: terrion arnold

CB • Alabama

Arnold fits the wingspan requirement for Colts CBs under Chris Ballard, and he fills a major position of need. He played in the slot quite a bit in college, and while he won’t be replacing Kenny Moore there, the Colts have to close the revolving door on the outside, and Arnold has the chops to upgrade there, and potentially provide a nice duo with Juju Brents. The Titans and Texans added to their WR corps in big ways this offseason. Colts can’t stand pat, and explosiveness at receiver is much easier to find later than competency at corner this year.

16. seahawks: jared verse

ED • FSU

Maybe it’s Cooper Dejean, but he’s never played much slot or safety, and while there are reasons to believe he’d play the Kyle Hamilton role here for new HC Mike Macdonald, I think what he really needs is a heavy handed, tough, mean spirited edge like Jared Verse.

17. jaguars: amarius mims

OT • Georgia

Hear me out. Cam Robinson is still on the roster (for now). And Anton Harrison is currently manning the RT spot. But while Mims likely won’t slide inside to guard, Harrison could in a pinch, and if Robinson leaves later this summer or after his contract dies next year, you have a versatile guy in Mims who could man the left or the right side. Length, big school, Trent Baalke fit.

18. bengals: jer’zhan newton

IDL • Illinois

I liked this pick before the Trey Hendrickson trade request dropped. And I don’t think the Bengals are going to rewrite their draft board based on the pleas of a player under contract. They’re deep at edge, actually. But I do think adding to the DL with a player who can penetrate and cause havoc against the run and the pass is an even likelier possibility now, especially since this is the pick they were gonna make in this spot anyway.

19. rams: laiatu latu

ED • UCLA

Latu could drop a little with the injury concerns. Very clean, very pro-ready guy on the field, but being medically retired helped Jaelan Phillips drop to the 18th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, and I think Latu is in for a similar tumble. Still, he’s as polished as they come, and the Rams need more juice up front on defense after losing a pretty big piece in Aaron Donald.

20. steelers: graham barton

OC • Duke

Starting to look like someone’s going to have to trade up to land Barton, but if he somehow slips to 20, the Steelers shouldn’t hesitate. Omar Khan has mentioned his affinity for positional versatility, and while Barton is likely to end up at center, he does have experience at other spots, and he’s whip smart with a ton of athleticism, like some of the great Steelers pivots of old.

21. dolphins: troy fautanu

OL • Washington

Terron Armstead is oft-injured and close to retirement, and with knews of Fautanu’s knee issues, he could drop further than his talent suggests. Here, Miami finds a perfect fit in a guy who can slide in at guard Year 1, and move out to LT when Armstead hangs it up. The Dolphins are in serious need of help inside, and protecting Tua has to be paramount.

22. eagles: taliese fuaga

OL • Oregon State

Another perfect fit. And I believe Howie Roseman will trade up if Fuaga starts to fall this far. He’s a mauler who can become the type of athletic offensive tackle the Eagles crave in a few seasons, when Lane Johnson retires, while upgrading a guard spot in the interim.

23. vikings: marshawn kneeland

ED • Western Michigan

Call it a hunch. The Vikes need more pass rush juice, and they could use a guy like Kneeland who brings maximum effort every play, has versatility to slide inside, stand up on the edge or in the middle, and clearly has his best football in front of him. I like this as a first-round surprise.

24. cowboys: zach frazier

OC • West Virginia

Dallas has had success grabbing interior offensive linemen early in the past, and now that they’ve lost Tyler Biadasz and Tyron Smith, it’s tough to believe they’ll ignore the front in the first round this year. Latest rumblings are that Tyler Smith could move out to LT from LG, allowing TJ Bass to slide into the guard spot, creating a massive hole at center, where Frazier just so happens to have some similarities to Dallas stars of the past. Maybe it’s too early for him, but Dallas isn’t especially difficult to predict when value meets glaring need, and they’ve had no problem “reaching” for strong centers before, ahem, Travis Frederick.

25. packers: tyler guyton

OT • Oklahoma

We know the Packers are going to try to find an elite athlete at whichever position they target here. And I think there are legitimate concerns about the future of the D-Line, and the current state of the secondary. But with what’s left on the board there, the typical fits are lacking at those position groups. Not so on the OL, where Guyton scored a 9.65 RAS and brings upside Green Bay has had success with up front in recent years. You lost your left tackle, you need a guy who can help you keep your young quarterback humming, especially after completely ignoring the offensive line throughout the entirety of last year’s draft.

26. bucs: chop robinson

ED • Penn State

The Bucs have had success with pure pass rush style guys in the past, and after losing Shaq Barrett, I think they’ll look to upgrade the edges on defense. Robinson is a one-trick pony right now, but he has the potential to grow into an every down player, and you’re gonna want him hunting Kirk Cousins when the division is on the line.

27. cardinals: cooper dejean

DB • Iowa

I didn’t forget about him. I think the Cardinals are more likely to package picks and trade up from 27 than they are to move down from 4, so maybe that’s how they land DeJean. But I know the Cards need a true outside corner, which is where DeJean has experience, and if he plays the CJ Gardner role here, that’s a pretty successful route to take considering Jonathan Gannon’s success there in Philly. This secondary is awful. Someone has to be added.

28. bills: brian thomas

WR• LSU

Screw it. Brandon Beane has been aggressive before, and you don’t beat the Chiefs by playing it safe. In fact, the one team that’s beaten the Chiefs in the playoffs recently had a pretty strong bevy of receivers, which is something the Bills don’t. BTJ brings size they lack, deep speed, and a vertical element that can take advantage of Josh Allen’s big arm as a true X.

29. lions: kool-aid mckinstry

CB • Alabama

The Lions signed Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson, but after what their secondary went through last year, that can’t be the end of their moves here. They had excellent success with an Alabama prospect last year, and while that pipeline is a little narrow to run all my draft predictions through, I think it helps. McKinstry fits so much of what Detroit wants out of its players, especially when you ask the top receivers in this class who their toughest matchup was. Both Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr mentioned Kool-Aid, and that kind of rep gets noticed in Detroit, even more so when combined with his alpha attitude and the type of durability that allowed him to miss zero games in college.

30. ravens: jordan morgan

OL • Arizona

Don’t sleep on AD Mitchell or Ladd McConkey here, both of whom played for Todd Monken at Georgia. But, I think, considering the Ravens lost their RT when Morgan Moses went to New York, that this team wants to make sure those outside zone runs are there for Derrick Henry. Morgan can move in space, is a mauler in the ground game, and brings the kind of raw power that the Ravens will love.

31. 49ers: xavier worthy

WR • Texas

It’s a copycat league, and sometimes the guy you copy is a guy you taught in the first place. Mike McDaniel has created explosive plays and nightmares for DCs with the wild speed on his team, and with Brandon Aiyuk sounding more and more likely to be moved, why not add an element this team would be sorely lacking: insane deep speed. You can have a lot of fun with Worthy running pre-snap motion.

32. chiefs: patrick paul

OT • Houston

This dude looks like he was built in an offensive tackle lab directed by Dr. Andy Reid. True science fiction stuff. Paul has freaking Jennifer Lopez level anacondas for arms, and he’s a smooth athlete. He’s raw, doesn’t recover well, tons of room to grow, but the Chiefs have to avoid starting Wanya Morris at LT, and Paul could probably stand in one spot and stretch and give Mahomes enough time to throw a pass. Always some wild surprises on draft night. Here’s another.