1. panthers: anthony richardson

QB • Florida

Struck by something Josh Norris said in 2021 about not trading up for more of the same. Richardson certainly represents a deviation from the norm, but in a hell of a high-ceiling manner. He’s the most athletic quarterback prospect of all time, and when you really watch the tape, he’s making reads and plays that show promise. Here comes excitement.

2. texans: bryce young

QB • alabama

Well that worked out. I truly believe the Texans are looking for Bryce Young or no one at QB. And when he drops into their laps here, they’ll run the card to the podium. He’s a point guard if there ever was one, and while there are many comparisons to be made, he’s most reminiscent of Drew Brees, Joe Burrow… and Brock Purdy.

3. cardinals: christian gonzalez

CB • Oregon

Yeah, probably not at 3. Not projecting trades in this mock, though, and I do believe Gonzo fits. This roster is awful, and the Cards, with Monti Ossenfort remembering drafting a talented UGA player with off-field concerns in Tennessee (Isaiah Wilson), avoid flirting with Jalen Carter in favor of a guy who is going to go much earlier than people think.

4. colts: cj stroud

QB • Ohio State

Love this pick for a team dead set on finding the off button on the QB carousel. If Stroud gets out of the top two, which I think is more possible every day, then the Colts will do whatever it takes (Chris Ballard’s words) to land their guy. He checks the size boxes for Ballard, and he’s ready to compete with Gardner Minshew Day 1. One man’s trash…

5. seahawks: will anderson

ED • Alabama

The Richardson pick at 1 is a gift to a lot of teams in this mock, allowing the Seahawks to grab their likely top rated guy without moving up in Round 1, something Jon Schneider never does anyway. Anderson is a culture fit who will bring a tenacity to the edge that was sorely missing in Seattle last season. A QB is possible if one drops, but I don’t see it.

6. lions: devon witherspoon

CB • Illinois

Depending on where Arizona lands, this could be Gonzalez or Witherspoon, but here Witherspoon is the one available, and he’s a hell of a fit in his own right. Losing Jeff Okudah doesn’t entirely dictate adding a CB at 6 with the moves Detroit made this offseason to shore up the position, but he’s a fit and a value regardless of need.

7. raiders: nolan smith

ED • Georgia

Nolan Smith is going to go earlier than we’ve thought, and 7 counts as early. Patrick Graham needs a lot of things to fix this defense, and with both top-tier CBs off the board, grabbing Smith, who can be this team’s version of Dont’a Hightower cerebrally while adding some juice to the pass rush makes too much sense. Bad bad defense last year.

8. falcons: tyree wilson

ED • Texas Tech

Wanted to go Jalen Carter here. Great locker room for him, but ATL has added so much beef already this offseason, I feel like they’re more in need of an edge presence as they transition away from Dean Pees’ 30 front. Wilson is a hell of a chess piece for that metamorphosis, with ability at standing OLB or hand in the dirt DE. Long, strong guy.

9. bears: darnell wright

OT • Tennessee

Worst defense in the league last year, but I agree with Daniel Jeremiah that a 2023 offseason with a 32nd defense but a clear picture of Justin Fields’ future is more valuable than half-assing both sides. This year is about protecting Fields and giving him everything he needs to maximize his potential. The rest of the OL is set. A true RT fits like a glove.

10. eagles: jalen carter

IDL • Georgia

Damn Eagles. It’s so transparent and common it hurts to type, but I think Philly is the backstop for Carter’s slide. Apparently Jordan Davis was an excellent influence on him, and God knows Howie Roseman won’t let a talented DL pass him by. Maybe they move up for it, maybe he falls, but I am starting to believe Carter is headed to Philadelphia.

11. titans: will levis

QB • Kentucky

Not to overreact to one data point, but Will Levis’ S2 score is pretty impressive, and we know he has the physical talent. It’s tough to have 4 different OCs in your college career, and I believe a new GM in Tennessee in Ran Carthon wants to get his guy at QB while he can. They don’t believe they’ll draft this highly again. Maybe a trade up if needed.

12. texans: lukas van ness

ED • Iowa

I don’t know if the Justin Smith comps matter since that was before DeMeco Ryans’ time, but I do know this defensive line has a bunch of solid guys with no true edge-setting difference maker. Van Ness is ultra-strong with loads of potential and long arms, and he brings a developmental piece to the defensive front that’s blatantly missing right now.

13. jets: paris johnson

OT • Ohio State

The Jets aren’t going to land Aaron Rodgers and play him behind this current line. Would be a hell of a waste of money. And while I know they need help on the other side of the ball, too, I don’t believe they’ll ignore the OT spot after paying handsomely for a QB. Johnson has the length they like in their tackles, and can step in early on either side.

14. patriots: bijan robinson

RB• Texas

I have no idea where to put this guy. RB or not, I don’t think he lasts til the 20s, and I wanted to stick him in ATL, but as far as landing spots go, this isn’t that odd. The Pats need to get back to the playoffs now, and while his shelf life may not be long, he’ll make an instant impact while taking pressure off of Mac Jones and Bill O’Brien.

15. packers: michael mayer

TE • Notre Dame

Green Bay will absolutely draft a pass catcher now that Aaron Rodgers is gone. They have strong young players at wide receiver, and although Josiah Deguara has played admirably as an H-back, they are empty at TE, with contracts expiring after this season. Mayer is special, and he fits their very strict model of prospect athleticism.

16. commanders: peter skoronski

OT • Northwestern

Ron Rivera has a short clock, and he may not publicly care, but if he thinks Sam Howell is going to thrive behind the current OL… Skoronski can step in at either tackle or guard spot, arm length be damned, and he’ll provide early consistent impact for a team that can’t afford to falter. Brian Branch fits here, too, but he’s further down the board.

17. steelers: emmanuel forbes

CB • Mississippi State

Another guy being mocked too low, Forbes is gaining weight and muscle mass, and his proactive ball-hawking nature can’t be underestimated. Pitt loves takeaways in their secondary (who doesn’t), and Forbes mentality, stickiness in coverage, and ability to break on the ball helps them fight the suddenly strong passing weapons in this division.

18. lions: calijah kancey

IDL • Pitt

Brad Holmes was in LA for the peak of Aaron Donald’s career, and while Kancey isn’t exactly Donald, he has some insane traits for a DL, and was pretty productive at the same school. Levi Onwuzurike can’t stay healthy, and Kancey gives them another pass rusher up the middle, while adding the type of knee biting personality they love.

19. bucs: broderick jones

OT • Georgia

Jason Licht hasn’t been shy about his admiration for this OL class, even if he hasn’t been a carnival barker for it. Tampa has nothing at tackle outside of Tristan Wirfs, and whoever the QB is, they’ll need better protection if they’re going to compete in a very winnable division. Jones is young, but incredibly athletic, and can play left or right side for Tampa.

20. seahawks: jaxon smith-njigba

WR • Ohio State

Seattle simply cannot continue with such a high percentage of their passing yards funneled through only two guys. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett need a running mate, and JSN fits perfectly alongside them for now and potentially in Lockett’s stead for years to come. Schneider likes drafting positions early that have little depth, and WR counts in ‘23.

21. chargers: mazi smith

IDL • Michigan

Smith isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s the right one. A few GMs have mentioned how hard it’s been recently to find solid play on the inside of the DL, and the Chargers must know that considering they were run all over last season. JAX averaged 5.6 ypc in LA’s playoff loss. And that wasn’t an isolated incident. RBs and WRs will be there later. Smith won’t.

22. ravens: deonte banks

CB • Maryland

Think the Ravens paid OBJ $15M because they love this WR class? They aren’t going that direction here. On the other hand, Banks is an absolutely elite athlete at a need that could tank a defense that really found its footing as the year went on if it’s not addressed. Good scheme versatility, which is big in Mike Macdonalds’s flexible approach.

23. vikings: brian branch

DB • Alabama

Brian Flores loves versatile defensive backs, like Eric Rowe, and Branch is an upgraded version in my opinion. Again, positional scarcity dictates this direction over another spot like receiver, since the WR class is much deeper than the nickel/safety/cb/hybrid spot that is so important in this scheme. Branch is a hell of a steal here, regardless.

24. jaguars: dalton kincaid

TE • Utah

I know they franchised Evan Engram. And maybe there are bigger needs in the secondary. But no one else on the board has the immediate upside of Kincaid, even at a position known to take a minute to reach acclimation. Doug Pederson loves 12 personnel as much as anyone, and Kincaid gives them that option this season if he lasts this long.

25. giants: joey porter jr

CB • Penn State

Can’t run this defense effectively without great man corners, and Porter is as good as any Tier B guy in this class when it comes to sliding in a receiver’s hip pocket after torturing him off the line. Center and receiver are needs for sure, but there are more receivers in this class than elite man corners, and a shutdown CB outranks a center in Round 1.

26. cowboys: darnell washington

TE • Georgia

It’s either Drew Sanders or Washington if the board falls this way. Sanders is an Arkansas guy and adds an athletic, pass-rushing complement to Micah Parsons, but Washington is a classic “first guy off the bus” guy, and Jerry loves those, plus I know they are hard up to provide Dak with a true red zone weapon and a safety blanket at TE. He’s a freak.

27. bills: john michael schmitz

C • Minnesota

Probably not starting him at C this year, but Mitch Morse is coming off one of his worst seasons ever and has only two years left on his deal. I think Schimtz can play some guard in Year 1, which would help upgrade the matador’s lounge that is Ryan Bates, and then he can take over for Morse next season or in 2025 at the latest. He’s the best option.

28. bengals: adetomiwa adebawore

IDL• Northwestern

The Bengals like to draft a year ahead, and they don’t deviate from their board. That means in this scenario Adebawore is the best bet. I know they love Forbes as a CB replacement, but DJ Reader has one year left on his deal, and BJ Hill is a likely cap casualty after this season. Ade Ade can provide a future inside, and help outside, too.

29. saints: myles murphy

ED • Clemson

Not a lot to say here. New Orleans has almost nothing on their DL outside of the aging but still effective Cam Jordan, and they won’t win even this soft division without a pass rush. Murphy tested incredibly well at his private workout, but he’s not a true finisher yet and has a need for a mentor like Jordan. Saints have to address the DL early. Have to.

30. eagles: kelee ringo

CB • Georgia

Press man corner. Not for everybody, but damn he fits well here based on what Philly did in 2022. Yes, Darius Slay and James Bradberry are both back, but both could be gone after 2024, and that would give Ringo the wonderful advantage of learning behind them while providing depth at a position that was perilously close to becoming a sore spot.

31. chiefs: zay flowers

WR • Boston College

They could use some reinforcements here after losing JJSS and Mecole Hardman, and Flowers can literally line up anywhere and run any route you throw at him. He’ll be a fun weapon if they can land him, and they’ve shown no fear going after undersized talent at skill positions. Flowers, Kadarius Toney, MVS, and Skyy Moore is a great young WR group.