1. jaguars: travon walker

ED • Georgia

I’m convinced. Trent Baalke likes long arms, and well Travon Walker certainly has those. There are plenty of ways to explain away his good tape, and plenty of ways to explain his potential, but he’s a hyper-rare athlete, and in a draft with too few of those with any production, he’s too good a moonshoot to pass up here.

2. lions: aidan hutchinson

ED • Michigan

I don’t buy the Kayvon Thibodeaux hype here. If Hutchinson is on the board, the kid stays close to home and goes from Ann Arbor to Detroit. Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes didn’t mind short arms on Penei Sewell, so I don’t think the measuring tape outweighs the personality and gritty fit here. This team needs leaders, that’s Hutchinson.

3. texans: derek stingley

CB • LSU

Too much smoke. I started leaning Stingley early this week, then all hell broke loose as every report found the same. Josh Norris was the first I saw to slot a corner here, but I think Stingley is the better fit than Sauce, and now that he’s fully healthy, that 2019 tape will make the call easy for a team that has been vocal about its poor CB play of late.

4. jets: ickey ekwonu

OT • NC State

Joe Douglas loves his O line, and I get the feeling that Mekhi Becton’s in bad shape. He’s been hurt too often for a team looking to protect their young QB, and even if he comes back, your line is stronger with Ickey up front, in place of or alongside Becton. Reports say they view Ekwonu as a 10+ year starter. Can’t wait for 10th for a top OL this year.

5. giants: charles cross

OT • Mississippi State

I’ve gotten in trouble leaning on what makes sense to me over what’s actually being said, and I just can’t deny the heat around their reported love for Cross over the other tackles. Brian Daboll wants tackles who can get out in space, and as much as I think Evan Neal is a better player, that is not his strong suit. Cross moves to the right in NY.

6. panthers: evan neal

OT • Alabama

One man’s trash… Some of David Tepper’s comments about taking time to build a team the right way could speak to grabbing a young QB, but I feel he means he’s going to support Matt Rhule, and with less heat on his seat, Rhule doesn’t have to deviate from his “sign whichever veteran QB no one else wants” strategy. Neal is a boon here, too.

7. giants: sauce gardner

CB • Cincinnati

No one likes to run man coverage like Wink Martindale (oddly there’s an old DJ by the same name). The Giants are apparently looking to trade James Bradberry, and without a replacement, this defense won’t hunt. With the O-line solidified two picks earlier, Gardner is a natural fit to step in immediately and blanket whoever the Eagles mistakenly draft.

8. falcons: jordan davis

IDL • Georgia

I could regret not slotting a WR, or Jermaine Johnson, or Thibodeaux here, but hear me out… Grady Jarrett trade rumors are swirling, which would leave Atlanta entirely bereft up front. And Dean Pees’ most successful defenses had Vince Wilfork or Haloti Ngata up front. If you’re gonna have no offense, you better keep the other team from scoring.

9. seahawks: kayvon thibodeaux

ED • Oregon

If there’s one team who will embrace whatever his personality is (seems like a unique, but smart guy to me…), it’s the Seahawks. I think Seattle has more pressing needs on offense (quarterback, offensive line at like any spot, etc), but this would be the floor for Thibodeaux in my mind, provided no one trades ahead of 9 to grab him.

10. jets: jameson williams

WR • Alabama

Williams will be the first receiver off the board. I honestly wouldn’t be that shocked if the Jets used pick 4 on him. Again, in a draft lacking guys with elite talent and elite production, why not make damn sure you get one, ACL injury or not. New York wanted an alpha receiver all offseason, and I believe they’ll find a way to land Jameson.

11. commanders: drake london

WR • USC

Not the pick I’d make, and Kyle Hamilton is certainly a possibility, but damn, you heard Ron Rivera say 100x that to make the Carson Wentz investment successful, they need to surround him with as much help as possible. This offense needs playmakers, and the flat-out size advantage London has over the division’s slot guys is almost reason enough.

12. vikings: garrett wilson

WR • Ohio State

When you look at the roster in a vacuum, there are bigger needs, but not when you consider who the new coach is. This is a guy who came from a Rams team that grabbed OBJ when Robert Woods was still healthy and just signed Allen Robinson. This offense needs more than just Justin Jefferson and an aging Adam Thielen. Wilson fits.

13. texans: jermaine johnson

ED • FSU

Maybe it happens in a trade up, but I believe the Texans are looking to Lovie and asking him what he needs to make at least one side of the ball competitive. As a defensive guy, getting strength in the secondary and a guy who can maximize that investment by pressuring QBs makes sense. Johnson isn’t perfect, but he’s the last tier 1 guy available.

14. ravens: devonte wyatt

IDL • Georgia

Bear with me… I’m not showing trades in this mock, but this pick is a projection based on Baltimore moving down. That said, even at 14 this wouldn’t be an awful pick. The Ravens have an aging Calais Campbell up front, with an easy out after 2022. Plus, many thought Wyatt, not Jordan Davis or Travon Walker, was the real impact player on Georgia’s DL.

15. eagles: treylon burks

WR • Arkansas

Burks is the best fit for the Eagles if they continue their prestigious tradition of drafting a WR early every single year. He’s the best run blocker at the position in this class, brings size that Olave and Dotson don’t, and he’s versatile enough to carry the ball out of the backfield. All of those traits make him a fit for a team committed to the run.

16. saints: chris olave

WR • Ohio State

Quickly, before the Chargers take him. Olave somehow has become the afterthought when ranking the top three WR in this class, but he’s a smooth route runner with enough grease to get downfield, something Jameis Winston sorely lacks in his current arsenal. The Saints can’t go into next year with essentially the same stock of weapons out wide.

17. chargers: zion johnson

IOL • Boston College

The Chargers could definitely use a RT, but I don’t love Penning, and it’s not like they’re sitting pretty at guard. With the top tier receivers off the board, Johnson becomes an easy call for a team looking to both protect Justin Herbert, and remain effective in the running game. They can move Matt Feiler to right tackle if needed, and get the best 5 out there.

18. eagles: lewis cine

S • Georgia

Look how hard Howie Roseman has worked to find the right safeties, and he’s sitting here stuck with K’Von Wallace and Anthony Harris. Cine is a smart, wildly fast, headhunting guy who is much higher on NFL boards than in the media. He’ll fill the need that Tyrann Mathieu was supposed to while providing a booming presence on this D.

19. saints: tyler smith

OT • Tulsa

Call me crazy, but I don’t think Trevor Penning is the pick. A fake tough guy at the Senior Bowl, his actions would have caused 2x as many penalties as Smith’s tendency to get grabby, and while both are a work in progress, Smith is much more fluid, and has shades of the same strengths and weaknesses that Terron Armstead showed coming out.

20. steelers: malik willis

QB • Liberty

Gotta stick these guys somewhere. For whatever reason, the heat around this pick feels similar to last year when everyone under the sun knew the Steelers would take Najee Harris. Maybe the love Mitch Trubisky the starter, but it’s more likely they love Mitch Trubisky the bridge. Willis and Harris could form a formidable duo for years.

21. patriots: devin lloyd

LB • Utah

There’s a legitimate chance Lloyd goes much higher, as he’s got pass rush chops that not many off-ball linebacker tend to possess. But that type of versatility (think Anthony Barr or even a better Kyle Van Noy) is exactly what Bill Belichick looks for. I can’t see Lloyd falling past the Pats if he does drop this far at all.

22. packers: quay walker

LB • Georgia

Hahahhahaha. No receiver. Burks and Olave and the top three guys are off the board, and there is zero chance the Packers reach for a wideout in Round 1, if they even take one on Thursday at all. Still, Walker can play inside with Devondre Campbell to give the Packers an elite LB corps, and I have to find a home for him in Round 1.

23. cardinals: jahan dotson

WR • Penn State

On the other end of the spectrum, the Cardinals. A team I guess destined to build the shortest skill group in NFL history. Height aside, Dotson is a tough receiver, who runs sharp routes and shows an uncanny carelessness for his body when he runs through the football over the middle of the field to make the catch. Here’s your Kirk replacement.

24. cowboys: trevor penning

OT • Northern Iowa

So Dallas wants to get tougher up front, but they need a guard now and a tackle in a couple years. That’s probably the best description of Penning’s reputation out there. He has the talent to survive while playing early, and the potential to start on the left side if he gets himself under control. Tyron Smith could be an excellent mentor.

25. bills: kyle hamilton

S • Notre Dame

I get the feeling the Bills will be aggressive as Hamilton starts to slide. This is a team that drafts for the future, and Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are 31-year-olds who could both be gone in a year. This position is very important in Sean McDermott’s defense, and he wouldn’t have to change his philosophy to make room for a unicorn like Hamilton.

26. titans: kenyon green

IOL • Texas A&M

It ain’t sexy, but it’s right. Theme of my prom. The Titans feel like a team that invested heavily in early offensive line help, and they have, but that’s no reason to quit now when the inside of this OL reads like a list of Game of Thrones extras. Green has experience up and down the line, but he’ll start at guard and allow TEN to keep pounding.

27. bucs: kaiir elam

CB • Florida

The Bucs seem to value size in their corners, and while it may not seem a pressing need at first glance, Jamel Dean and Sean Bunting are UFAs after this season. They need depth now, and starting answers very soon. Elam looked great against Jameson Williams, and his physical traits are tough not to bet on in an uncertain year.

28. packers: logan hall

ED • Houston

Kenny Clark must be the most generous guy of all time because he’s never had help up front in Green Bay, and yet he continues to produce. Adding Hall next to him, a guy whose hopeful comps are Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, would allow a suddenly stacked LB group to roam free, a tactic the Bucs used to beat GB in 2021.

29. chiefs: george karlaftis

ED • Purdue

No, his arms aren’t incredibly long, and yeah he’s not super bendy off the edge and relies on a bullish mentality over finesse at times. Sounds a little like Melvin Ingram to me, a guy whose end of season pass rush spark the Chiefs cannot afford to miss out on replicating if they want their defense to stop anyone in 2022. Edge is a major need.

30. chiefs: george pickens

WR • Georgia

Character concerns have been blown way out of proportion. He punched a rival player, which is stupid, and he squirted water on another rival. Call the NSA. Jesus, it’s football. He worked his tail off to get back in time for the title game, then used his size, skill, and speed to make an impact for the winning team. KC loves UGA guys, and needs a true No. 1 WR.

31. bengals: trent mcduffie

CB • Washington

Honestly, the Bengals offensive line seems to be in pretty good shape, and with Linderbaum likely locked into center, he may be overkill with Ted Karras now on the roster. So, I’ve moved on to McDuffie here, who seems to be a lock in the first round in a year where nothing is certain. His size helps him drop.

32. lions: kenny pickett

QB • Pitt

Maybe it’s a trade, maybe the Lions take a future passer. Goff actually played well late, and while I just don’t think Pickett fits their M.O. at the position, I need Kenny Pickett in Round 1, and it’s not impossible that Detroit feels like he’s the heir apparent to Goff. At the very least, he gives them a ready-to-go option if Jared struggles, which yeah…