nfl draft grades

1. jaguars

🔥Rod Kimball: Trevor Lawrence

🐓Squeak Scolari: Walker Little

😴Rocky Balboa: Andre Cisco

🕰GM History (with team):

Day 1 - All-timer QB prospect and an RB to help the coach’s offense run. Versatile guy.

Day 2 - Productive upside at DB, and a swing on a great OT with medical flags.

Day 3 - Guts players, special teams contributors, filling rotational holes.

🤖Overview:

Tough to learn too much about Jacksonville’s draft strategy after only one draft where the top pick was as clear as Eric Taylor’s eyes. Still, the 25th pick tells us Urban Meyer is very much involved, and wants to staff his offense with players who fit systems he had success with in college (shocking). I believe Kadarius Toney would’ve been the pick there if he was available, so we can assume this offense would have been an even carbon-er copy of the teams we saw him run at Florida and Ohio State.

In the later rounds, we can estimate that Jacksonville does not give two rats about injury history, especially in a year where the medical information was limited, relatively. The selections of Walker Little and Andre Cisco show a team willing to take risks for upside. And a final note - lots of people assumed Pat Freiermuth would be a consideration at pick 25 or 33, but the Jags smartly didn’t reach for a need, though we can expect them to look to solve tight end next year.

2. jets

🔥Rod Kimball: Elijah Moore

🐓Squeak Scolari: Zach Wilson

😴Rocky Balboa: Michael Carter

🕰GM History (with team):

D1 - Grabbed athletic/freak LT, and OL again in 2021. “Excitement” QB early with top two pick.

D2 - Athletic receivers with upside (2x), big safety to replace FA loss, undersized EDGE.

D3 - Undersized RBs (2x), DB with special teams upside (6x), developmental QB, punter

🤖Overview:

This wasn’t a normal year for many reasons, but the ironclad pick at one probably contributed to New York’s comfort with allowing their pick to be so transparent. Trading Sam Darnold only made it more so. Still, we can assume the Jets don’t worry too much about prototypical size with their prospects, as evidenced by Zach Wilson, Elijah Moore and Michael Carter all coming in as undersized guys with their first three picks.

Replicating some of the successful structure Robert Saleh saw in San Francisco, expectedly, informed many of the draft decisions. More surprisingly to me, the holes filled in free agency largely went unaddressed in the draft. That’s fine, but I expected to see doubling-down on edge rusher and linebacker, neither or which the Jets attacked during the weekend, unless you count Hamsah Nasirildeen, who could play some WILL. Clearly they will spend a lot on one position group, as evidenced by their four or five picks in the secondary.

3. 49ers

🔥Rod Kimball: Elijah Mitchell

🐓Squeak Scolari: Talanoa Hufanga

😴Rocky Balboa: Ambry Thomas

🕰GM History (with team):

D1 - ‘21 first year they didn’t address DL/OL in round one. Trades abound. High upside guys.

D2 - WR (3x) is a tendency, db (2x) but really it’s a strong mix of clear system fits and upside swings.

D3 - They are looking for system fits at skill spots. DB (6x), te and wr (3x each), and depth on lines.

🤖Overview:

Ok. This one killed me. I bought in very hard to the Mac Jones rumors. I thought he was the target at 12, and that’s lesson one: they wouldn’t move up 9 spots to take the guy I thought made sense at 12. Sometimes just plain logic is actually logical… moving up aggressively probably doesn’t mean this team is looking for the same ole at quarterback. Additionally, while Kyle Shanahan has had success with pocket passers, the smart way to view this is through the lens of the ultimate results there: he made two Super Bowls, but he lost them both. If you want to accomplish something you’ve never accomplished, you have to employ tactics and strategies you’ve never employed.

They also seem to treat their players the right way, in the media and in real life, and the public backing of Jimmy G as a guy they still wanted wasn’t BS, it was a sign they were looking to grab a signal caller who may need more time to develop, which in hindsight screams Trey Lance over Jones. That, plus Lance’s connection to John Beck, proved true. They love high upside athletic talent, and combined with the Nick Bosa pick seem to care very little about recent college experience (both Bosa and Lance played limited final seasons).

4. falcons

🔥Rod Kimball: Kyle Pitts

🐓Squeak Scolari: Darren Hall

😴Rocky Balboa: Frank Darby

🕰GM History (with team):

D1 - The best player to help them win now. There’s no valuing long-term over current here.

D2 - Addressing positions of need with value. Replicating S and IOL strengths from NO.

D3 - Doubling down on weak DL and DB with two picks each. Undervalued guys nationally.

🤖Overview:

Arthur Blank will listen to his guys, and the media got it wrong when they painted Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot as the guys angling for a quarterback. Blank wanted to plan for the future, his guys wanted to win now. I also felt like the Julio Jones trade rumors pointed to Kyle Pitts, as this team would’ve lost a giant target out wide and clearly needed that in this offense, even if they somehow never seem to get Jones the ball in the endzone any more.

Otherwise, tough to get too strong a read on their long-term strategy from this haul. The offensive line was identified as a weakness, despite the prestige of the names currently up front. That speaks to Smith’s comfort with the success his Titans’ teams had with that unit. Ignoring the running back spot was surprising, especially since you can’t just point to positional value as the reason when the team was ok taking a tight end at four. There were some odd names at deep positions, too, which means this team had a very different view of mid-late round value than the media.

5. bengals

🔥Rod Kimball: Ja’Marr Chase

🐓Squeak Scolari: Jackson Carman

😴Rocky Balboa: Cam Sample

🕰GM History (with Zac Taylor):

D1 - All offense so far, with high picks. LT, QB, WR. Productive guys, all SEC, elite traits.

D2 - LB (3x) in 3 years. That’s a trend. OL and pass-catching help from big schools otherwise.

D3 - 5x DL, 3x EDGE, 3x RB. They are looking for EDGE and OL depth they think they can develop.

🤖Overview:

Well we nailed this one. Zac Taylor loves to run out of 11, and that requires three strong receiving options. Ja’Marr Chase was going to be the pick, especially considering they signed a right tackle in free agency, and feel good about their left tackle who played well last year in what was his first year after being drafted in 2019. That meant they were comfortable with the depth of the OLine class, especially in comparison to the receiver class. You couldn’t replicate Chase in Round 2, but they could have replicated an interior offensive lineman there - even though they picked experience and safe floor with Carman over upside with basically anyone else available there.

They valued the depth of the OL class so highly they actually traded back in Round 2 rather than pick one of the very high value tackle types there. They’re also fairly predictable when it comes to DLine guys, especially edge types, as they picked middle round pass rushers for like the 100th time in a row. I love the value and depth they get out of Joe Ossai, Cam Sample, and Tyler Shelvin, and it fits their pattern. We can probably cross kicker off of next year’s list, thank you, Evan McPherson.

6. dolphins

🔥Rod Kimball: Ja’Marr Chase

🐓Squeak Scolari: Jackson Carman

😴Rocky Balboa: Cam Sample

🕰GM History (with team):

D1 - Edge (2x) and OL (3x) have been priorities, with speed/athleticism as a prevailing trait.

D2 - More of same here, even split O/D, with productivity/experience higher here than on D1.

D3 - Almost even distro, except they’ve gone after 5 RB. They love RB in 6-7. Looking to homer there.

🤖Overview:

They hate Tua Tagovailoa. Not literally, but after watching him struggle unless he had a clean pocket (10 TDs, 0 INTs), they eschewed an elite blindside (RT is blindside here bc Tua is left-handed) protector and had no issues going after an undersized receiver coming off an injury who projects a lot like Will Fuller to me. Better in space, but another smaller speed guy. I like Jaylen Waddle, I do, but not at the expense of protecting Tua. They also didn’t care at all about Jaelan Phillips’ history with concussions and walking away from the game, so we can assume that elite traits outweigh potential drawbacks in size (Waddle) or medicals (Phillips).

They also smartly, in my opinion, didn’t chase a running back, believing that their ground game can succeed independent of personnel if the receivers and passing game are creating more room for runners, so don’t expect them to suddenly start reaching for runners. They made Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin look like All-Pros at times.

7. lions

🔥Rod Kimball: Penei Sewell

🐓Squeak Scolari: Alim McNeill

😴Rocky Balboa: Ifeatu Melifonwu

🕰GM History (with team):

D1 - BPA, but worked out that the value was really there. Trench building, aggressive players.

D2 - More of the same. Trenches. IDL (2x). Upside player with size and athleticism in DB.

D3 - Filling needs. They went after best available solid guys at WR and LB, and depth at RB.

🤖Overview:

They’re building a soft landing spot for an eventual QB, which means hopefully they’re smart enough to know the one they currently have ain’t it. Penei Sewell was far and away the best player available at Pick 7, and the Lions didn’t hesitate. The team wants killer instinct guys, knee eaters, but they also don’t appear to be interested in taking big swings or unnecessary risks, as evidenced by smart safe selections along both lines through the first three rounds.

Rather than trying to fill a hole at receiver early, the Lions chose to build on a strength up front on the offensive line - Sewell will fit with Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, and an improving Jonah Jackson to give Detroit an identity on offense. Addressing receiver with Amon-Ra St. Brown shows they’re not completely ignorant of needs, but I see a team willing to play out Jared Goff’s contract while they build the trenches on both sides and create an atmosphere more conducive to the success of whoever their next quarterback is.

8. panthers

🔥Rod Kimball: Jaycee Horn

🐓Squeak Scolari: Thomas Fletcher

😴Rocky Balboa: Deonte Brown

🕰GM History (with team):

D1 - All 8 of coach’s D1 picks on D. Ok waiting on top D player to fall. SEC(2x), big program/upside.

D2 - Weapons on offense, solid ready to play guys who may have been underused in college.

D3 - Big program guys again. Early starters rather than just special teams/depth/role players.

🤖Overview:

Well they sure believe in Sam Darnold. Passing on Justin Fields could prove foolish, but they weren’t lying about their faith in their new passer. Matt Rhule’s reported impression of Darnold when he was interviewing for the Jets jobs a few years ago rang true - he believes he and Joe Brady can bring this guy back to what he was projected to be when he went top three in the 2018 Draft.

We can also assume he’ll only ever pick defense in the first round. Not really, but after a draft that only touched that side of the ball last year, going back to the well in 2021 was surprising to me. He seems comfortable letting Brady work with free agent acquisitions while he handpicks talent for his side of the ball. Of course, Jaycee Horn is an excellent player in his own right, and fits the need for a bigger cover guy to blanket the sizable receivers in the NFC South. Additionally, no matter the lopsided nature of draft talent, you simply won’t see 10 offensive players come off the board before the first defender. Won’t happen. And it bears mentioning that, yes, the next four selections were all about giving Darnold the best chance to succeed with a new receiver (Terrace Marshall), a ready offensive tackle (Brady Christensen) and guard (Deonte Brown), and a highly underrated tight end in the George Kittle mold (Tommy Tremble).

9. broncos

🔥Rod Kimball: Jaycee Horn

🐓Squeak Scolari: Thomas Fletcher

😴Rocky Balboa: Deonte Brown

🕰GM History (with team):

D1 - Whatever coach/ex-GM wants. Passed on QB bc of Elway’s view. Great value, ready to play.

D2 - More guys who can play now and upgrade holes/average veteran starters. Fan faves.

D3 - Reactions to division, heavy on pass D (DB 3x, EDGE 2x). Value WR. Big names.

🤖Overview:

This is a weird one because I fully believe the Broncos thought they had a real shot at Aaron Rodgers, and I believe that in reality they had no shot at Aaron Rodgers. That likely informed their draft day decision to some degree, but they wanted to make Vic Fangio’s defense a tried and true strength they can lean on considering the uncertainty of the QB position, even after trading for Teddy Bridgewater. That may speak to a new GM who relied on the veteran presences around him in the draft room rather than his own gut feeling or research or opinions.

Which brings me to my next point, titled or not, John Elway was still running this thing. Apparently his opinion of the QBs in this class led to passing on Fields and Jones, and that is absolutely wild to me. Maybe the worst GM of all time, Elway shouldn’t have been in the state of Colorado on draft day, much less making calls on potential franchise passers. I loved the draft haul, honestly, but Bridgewater and Drew Lock is a terrible QB room, and beating the Chiefs and Chargers with coverage rather than pass rush or the ability to outscore them is wild. George Paton did look to strike gold with another second round runner in Javonte Williams, which I like, and which shows Paton is relying on what worked in Minnesota with Dalvin Cook (different backs for sure, though). Quinn Meinerz, Baron Browning, Jamar Johnson, and Jonathon Cooper showed a nice knack for picking up players who shouldn’t have fallen as far as they did, however.

10. eagles

🔥Rod Kimball: Devonta Smith

🐓Squeak Scolari: Zech McPhearson

😴Rocky Balboa: Tarron Jackson

🕰GM History (in current role):

D1 - Howie loves receivers and linemen (O/D), with WR (3x), EDGE (3x), and OL (3x) leading.

D2 - DBs big here (6x), WR heavy again (3x), and LB (3x). Incomplete/limited guys excite them.

D3 - Heavy lean toward defense, no fears on size, role players abound. Scraps.

🤖Overview:

The Eagles do not care about size at receiver. When Howie Roseman said that good players come in all “shapes and sizes” we can safely assume he was being honest and speaking at least in part about Devonta Smith. We also learned they have no qualms about trading with a divisional rival, or the additional price tag that can sometimes accompany such a move.

Further, we know they don’t mind swinging multiple times on a position they’ve missed on very recently, and I believe they were motivated by finding an excellent route runner above all else after letting Justin Jefferson fall through them in 2020. Also, not a shock, but Roseman loves linemen. Milton Williams showed that he has final say over which linemen, which is again not shocking, and then the additions of Landon Dickerson (no worries about medicals), Marlon Tuipulotu, and Tarron Jackson show a propensity to ensure that depth is never an issue in the trenches, and continuing to stockpile reserves who can push to start is a paramount factor in his draft day decisions.

11. bears

🔥Rod Kimball: Justin Fields

🐓Squeak Scolari: Larry Borom

😴Rocky Balboa: Thomas Graham

🕰GM History (with team):

D1 - Aggressive moves for QB (2x), athletic potential and speed over experience.

D2 - A tendency for OL (4x). TE (2x) and IDL (2x). Opposite of D1 - prefer experience here.

D3 - Love late O skill guys (10x) and DB (8x). Small schools, too (8x).

We already knew Ryan Pace was willing to get aggressive to go get his guy, especially at the QB position, and we’ll never be able to use that info with the Bears again, because if they need to be aggressive for a QB in the future, it’ll mean Pace is long gone. Still, he’s a big swinger. Justin Fields was absolutely worth what they gave up, in a much bigger move than the one they made for NPV Mitch.

Couple other interesting factors here… they are fine trading for, or signing, veteran talent at positions they plan to draft early. Mike Glennon gave way to Trubisky, and Andy Dalton became the same omen for the eventual drafting of Fields. We also continue to see a reticence to spend early picks on receivers after the misses on Kevin White and Anthony Miller, but that hasn’t stopped Pace from going after them in later rounds (Riley Ridley, Darnell Mooney, Dazz Newsome). It’s early, but if Pace is still running things next year, watch out for him to try high at receiver again. It’s probably coincidence, but they really do seem to care about fan opinion and selecting energizing guys. Maybe that’s a save-our-jobs move.

12. cowboys

🔥Rod Kimball: Micah Parsons

🐓Squeak Scolari: Kelvin Joseph

😴Rocky Balboa: Israel Mukuamu

You’re gonna continue to hear “Jerry Jones is infatuated with this guy he has no chance of drafting” until the end of time. The smart move is to estimate his ability, not his appetite, to actually move up and get him. Pitts was never going to happen. Micah Parsons, however, was someone Jerry loved as a person as much as a player, and he loves being the ole granddad. We also saw how willing they are to deal with anyone, divisional or not, and move back if they watch their top two targets (likely Patrick Surtain and Horn) drafted before them. They also went heavy on swiss-army types, who may not have true positional homes, or who may be looking to step into different roles. Essentially looking for traits over experience or college success.

Additionally, this team has no issues going back to the well to fix a position group, regardless of its overall value. Leighton Vander Esch wasn’t picked that long ago, neither was Jaylon Smith, but both are underachievers whether due to health or ability, and this defense was very slow last year. They wanted to address that glaring need. Just like they did when they went offensive line over and over again with Tyron Smith, Zach Martin, and Travis Frederick. Finally, now that Jason Garrett is gone, it seems there is no adherence to finding captains, or guys generally thought of as squeaky clean off the field. Kelvin Joseph and Parsons are probably fine guys, but they come with conversations, however small those may be. And yeah, I think Dan Quinn is heavily influencing the defensive picks, as long as he’s around, because who the hell is Nashon Wright?

13. chargers

🔥Rod Kimball: Micah Parsons

🐓Squeak Scolari: Kelvin Joseph

😴Rocky Balboa: Israel Mukuamu

Tom Telesco had a reputation as a guy unlikely to move up the board, and although he’s somewhat eradicated that pigeonholing, he has a knack for sitting and watching a perfect fit fall into his lap. Maybe that’s more luck than knack, but it happened with Derwin James, and it happened again with Rashawn Slater. An excellent fit at a position of need. Another major thing to watch out for is Telesco remarking that he’s comfortable with an obvious sore spot on the roster. The Chargers feigned comfort with their linebacker group before moving up for Kenneth Murray in 2020, and again this year said they were really fine with Trey Pipkins at left tackle before scooping up Slater.

They also clearly value size at the receiver spot, as we’ve seen Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Josh Palmer targeted by this team in the top three rounds, and Tre McKitty, though minimally used in college, is a bigger guy at 6-5 245. That doesn’t seem to be the case at corner, where additions like Chris Harris, Desmond King, Jason Verrett, Casey Hayward and now Asante Samuel are all under the flashy, but at times foolhardy, 6-foot mark.

15. pats

🔥Rod Kimball: Mac Jones

🐓Squeak Scolari: Joshuah Bledsoe

😴Rocky Balboa: Christian Barmore

If a team goes through an unusual amount of failure during a season, then acts completely uniquely during that offseason, we can safely expect that new behavior to extend to the draft. Now, the Pats didn’t make the aggressive move up the board that we predicted, but they did take a first-round quarterback for the first time since the Bill Belichick era began, and although they have Cam Newton under contract, they didn’t veer from their more typical QB model of pocket-awareness, and made a great pick with Mac Jones, who fits well within their preferred system. Especially considering the anemia of the offense in 2020 with a mobile, albeit aging, quarterback.

So, for all the anomaly of a hyperactive offseason, the Pats stood pat (like the millionth time that joke has been made) and let the board fall to them in the first round. I do wonder if the limited information provided by the covid-affected season/offseason kept them from being as mobile in the draft as they would have preferred, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them make a big move or two next year if this season ends in another missed playoff berth. This year did, however, bring normality for the Patriots in the form of a long defensive lineman (Christian Barmore), a falling edge rusher (Ronnie Perkins), and a shorter offensive lineman (Will Sherman).

16. pats

🔥Rod Kimball: Rondale Moore

🐓Squeak Scolari: Zaven Collins

😴Rocky Balboa: Tay Gowan

The Number 1 thing to remember about the Cardinals draft is to wait until the last minute to make your projection because a plethora of mocks dropped with the Zaven Collins pick following Peter Schrager’s (one of the only guys we managed to beat in The Huddle Report contest) report that they were likely going after yet another versatile linebacker in Round 1. I think one of the hardest things not to do when mocking is trying to outsmart a team. I like Collins fine, but he’s far from a big need for Arizona, and I thought surely they’d take a falling top tier corner. They did not, and I missed the fact that they were absolutely thrilled to take a second off-ball linebacker with blitz traits, not pedigree, with their first round pick.

I’m not sure how they think Collins helps them cover receivers or protect Kyler Murray, but this was a team that didn’t double down on positions in the draft that they felt they improved in free agency. In fact, I see no relation between the two here. They left holes unfilled in both, without creating a strength anywhere other than receiver, where an aging AJ Green paired with Rondale Moore (who Schrager also loved… think he’s plugged in to Arizona) at least represented trying to build a hill vs fill a ditch. I think they are clearly willing to do things their own way (hiring Kliff, drafting Kyler, drafting those ‘backers, etc), and it may prove to workout, but they like their guys, and they consistently look for odd ways to improve weak spots on their roster (Marco Wilson).

17. raiders

🔥Rod Kimball: Divine Deablo

🐓Squeak Scolari: Nate Hobbs

😴Rocky Balboa: Malcolm Koonce

I’m not going to waste time picking on the Alex Leatherwood pick because many did the same with Kolton Miller, and that has turned out better than you’d have believed after the 2018 Draft. I like Leatherwood, and clearly the Raiders don’t care about media boards or consensus when they draft. They would absolutely rather take their guy too early than even slightly risk losing him in a trade down. Same thing happened with Cle Ferrell. This team is a wildcard in the first round, but not unpredictably so. You can tell who they want, it’s just not a guy anyone else seems high on.

They fill holes directly! They don’t take BPA regardless of team strengths, they find a red spot on the roster, figure out their favorite high character, high experience guy at that spot, and draft someone from a big program who can start Day 1, for better or worse. It was also evident in the fact that they drafted three safeties (Trevon Moehrig, Divine Deablo, and Tyree Gillespie. They are not afraid to address only one side of the ball, either, after going defense with each of their last six picks, and they like to double down at areas, like we saw them do with receiver in 2020.

7. lions

QB • BYU

No reason to overthink this, either. Wilson has a cannon, creates off-script, and has a knack for making wild plays. He’ll be great, even if he’s a notch below Lawrence. There’s some chatter about a surprise Fields selection here, but it’s not happening. Wilson gets the keys in NY, and Robert Saleh gets his guy.

3. niners: mac jones

QB • Alabama

Ok I give up. I’d take Fields, Lance seems like a fit, but there is too much of a Daniel-Jones-to-NYG feel to ignore this. I like Mac, and apparently so does SF. The Shanahan and Lynch comments of late seem to be setting up for easing the perceived pain, and with it narrowed to Lance or Jones, I’m sticking Jones.

4. falcons: kyle pitts

TE • Florida

Blank wants to maximize Ryan’s window, and although it’s a prime spot for a QB, hard to see Arthur Smith passing on a rare tight end prospect if his boss agrees. Pitts is no consolation prize, though. He’ll transform this offense, regardless of Julio Jones’ potential trading. A top four player lands at pick four. Easy math.

5. bengals: ja’marr chase

WR • LSU

Yep, the Bengals need to protect Joe Burrow, but he also needs to be more accurate on deep passes, and Chase is harder to replicate in the 2nd round than OL. Burrow also struggled with holding the ball too long, and the trust built between he and Chase could lead to quicker triggers, behind an already improved OL.

6. dolphins: penei sewell

OT • Oregon

I went back and forth here between Sewell, a receiver, and trading down, but ultimately believe Sewell is the pick. Robert Hunt is moving to right guard, Tua was excellent from a clean pocket last year, and Sewell will be protecting a left-handers blind-side from the right tackle spot. Excellent player who is still young and getting better.

7. patriots: justin fields

🚨TRADE🚨 QB • Ohio State

There is no way the Patriots, after an unusually aggressive offseason and watching Tom Brady win a Super Bowl, go into 2021 with the same exact quarterback setup that led to a dismal season in 2020. It won’t happen. I could see Lance as a target, as well, but Fields learning behind one-year-contract Cam Newton fits.

8. panthers: rashawn slater

OT • Northwestern

Outside of Deadmau5, no one has more famously mentioned ghosts in the past 20 years than Darnold. Getting him his own Peter Venkman should help quickly. I could see a receiver here, or even a top corner, but the Panthers had a ton of success with the last OT they drafted in the eight slot (Jordan Gross), and they need the help.

9. denver: trey lance

QB • North Dakota State

The Broncos’ new management clearly isn’t sold on Drew Lock. You don’t go after Matt Stafford if you think you have the answer already on your roster, especially when he’s cheaper. That said, I think Denver is comfortable letting the board fall, and if Lance makes it to nine, he’ll be an easy pick to give new energy to this franchise.

10. cowboys: patrick surtain

CB • Alabama

Dallas needs to draft a corner. Their linebackers are awful, and they have an aging offensive line, but the need at corner is too glaring to ignore when they have their pick of this year’s crop. Surtain or Horn would provide a massive upgrade here, and despite Mike McCarthy’s familiarity with the Horn family, I’m leaning Surtain.

11. giants: jaylen waddle

WR • Alabama

This is one of the hardest picks to estimate. They could go EDGE, LB, CB, WR, OL… for a team hoping to make a playoff push, they have a ton of holes. Still, where value meets need happens at the WR spot. Golladay and Ross are oft-injured guys, Shepard is a concussion from retiring, and Slayton isn’t a one-man-show guy. Waddle it is.

12. eagles: jaycee horn

CB • South Carolina

The NFC East is so bad it’s difficult to select one need for any of them. Still, the Eagles couldn’t cover anyone last year, and I have a hard time seeing them go after another slight receiver after Jalen Reagor didn’t pan out. I know Smith is a wildly better player, but Horn is no slouch, and do you really want Avonte Maddox starting against anyone?

13. chargers: alijah vera-tucker

IOL • USC

Gotta protect Justin Herbert. Maybe the Chargers really do believe in Trey Pipkins (doubt it), but worst case AVT ends up inside at guard and you really protect your QB. Doesn’t sound too bad. Still, my bet is that he gets his shot at LT, and Herbert does even more damage behind a stronger line in 2021.

14. dolphins: devonta smith

🚨TRADE🚨 WR • Alabama

I’m not a Dolphins fan, even though reading this mock you might think I am. I do, however, believe that Tua looked precariously close to a bust last year, and if I’m Miami I’m swinging hard to give him every chance to prove me wrong. Smith fits really well alongside their current WR group, and moving up won’t cost much if he does fall.

15. lions: micah parsons

🚨TRADE🚨 LB • Penn State

The reason the Dolphins moving to 14 makes so much sense is that if Smith starts to fall, they’ll have to get ahead of Detroit to snag him. The Lions, in this scenario, turn toward a tone-setting defensive player with elite traits who fills a major hole on a defense going through a major transition. It’s not perfect, but he’s a start, along with the extra picks.

16. cardinals: greg newsome

CB • Northwestern

I know Kingsbury is apparently enamored with all the receivers, but guess what so are the other teams ahead of them. Moving up isn’t a one-way street. Instead, for a team looking to get into the playoffs and win now, taking a chance on a ready man cornerback is worth the risk his medical profile provides. Lotta good QBs in this division.

17. raiders: azeez ojulari

EDGE • Georgia

How do you beat the Chiefs? Pressure the hell out of Pat Mahomes. So if you’re pass rushers consist of Cle Ferrell, Maxx Crosby, and Yannick Ngakoue, I think it’s fair to consider additional help. The Raiders severely lacked playmakers on defense last year, and a true freshman captain from an SEC team fits their mold in more ways than one.

18. vikings: kwity paye

🚨TRADE🚨 EDGE • Michigan

Once one edge rusher goes, a run could start. The Vikings will be kissing each other (something Vikings do) if Paye lasts this long. They have no one to rush the passer, and they can’t beat the Packers without pressure. Paye is an elite physical talent who just needs a little refinement and should start day one.

19. wash: jeremiah owusu-koramoah

LB • Notre Dame

Everywhere Ron Rivera has been he’s had a speedy safety/linebacker hybrid type like Thomas Davis or Shaq Thompson. There is a need at left tackle, but the class is deeper than the elite tight-end-covering linebacker group, and if JOK makes it this far (big if), he’ll step right into a LB corps lacking his versatility.

20. bears: christian darrisaw

OT • Virginia Tech

Might as well protect Andy Dalton from defenses since you can’t protect him from fans. Darrisaw could go earlier, but he’s not exactly a refined pass blocker, and this class has some interesting depth that could cause a short fall. Still, Chicago has to invest in the offensive line, finally. Sorry no QBs made it. You can have Kellen Mond next round.

21. vikings: teven jenkins

🚨TRADE🚨 OT • Oklahoma State

If the Vikings do move down earlier, they’ll have even more picks to deal with than the 10 they’re starting this draft with. That will allow them to move back up and go heavy on round one talent, and filling two glaring holes at OT and edge rusher should make them feel ok about not picking again til day three. Jenkins fits their offensive identity.

22. titans: elijah moore

WR • Ole Miss

Tennessee lost a ton of pass-catching help this offseason. Derrick Henry rightly gets the bulk of credit for this offense’s success, but you can’t go fully one-dimensional and finish top five in scoring in the NFL. Moore is nearly every team’s WR4 in this class, and pairing him with AJ Brown and Josh Reynolds keeps the wheels on after the RTs are gone.

23. jets: zaven collins

LB • Tulsa

The Jets need some interior OL help, and they haven’t solved the issue of weapons around their new QB, but that defense is just plain bad right now. Robert Saleh always had good linebackers in SF, and the ones he’s picked up so far in NY don’t fully solve the need for a versatile, coverage-able, WILL guy, which his defense sorely needs.

24. steelers: najee harris

RB • Alabama

Sometimes late fits that you see in every single mock are absolutely guaranteed NOT to happen. Sometimes they make too much sense to ignore. If the Steelers want to win right now, and they do, and they want to stop throwing it 55 times a game, and they do, they need a ground game. Najee is incredibly underrated as a modern pro back.

25. jaguars: christian barmore

DT • Alabama

The Jags aren’t short on needs, but they can’t continue to lack any sort of push from the inside of the defensive line. Barmore is the best IDL in this class by a mile, and there’s no one behind him who can come in and be a three down player early on. The Jags need offensive help, too, but they can’t pass up a chance to add Barmore here.

26. browns: tyson campbell

CB • Georgia

Grant Delpit, Denzel Ward, and Greedy Williams are all unreliable medically, so the Browns need to add a warm body to their secondary who doesn’t run as blatant a risk of missing time. Campbell is long, fast, and has smooth hips to stay glued in man. Greater coverage ability helps the improved pass rush, and vice versa.

27. ravens: alex leatherwood

OT • Alabama

Everyone in the world thinks Baltimore wanted two picks to secure another target for Lamar, but doesn’t it feel (that’s) so Ravens to pick a big mauler on the O-Line from Alabama? I believe they’ll look to build on current strengths vs address deficiencies that they may be more than a receiver away from solving anyway now that Orlando is gone.

28. saints: jamin davis

LB • Kentucky

Yes, NO needs a corner, and yes the two guys from Georgia and Asante Samuel are still on the board. But they’ve tried for years to add speed to their LB corps, and they haven’t had any luck. Davis is overrated, and has much more growing to do than some will have you believe, but damn he’s fast and fills a need at a shallower position group than CB.

29. jaguars: travis etienne

🚨TRADE🚨 RB • Clemson

Urban Meyer couldn’t have been happy with the Jags offseason acquisitions on the offensive side of the ball, and we know he loves speed, especially at the running back position. Etienne will be gone if he makes it to Buffalo, so stepping in front here makes a ton of sense, and allows the Jags to be more versatile on offense breaking in a new QB.

30. bills: trevon moehrig

S • TCU

I haven’t seen this pick in a single mock, so maybe I’m an idiot, but if you look at what happened against KC, second corner wasn’t the problem - covering Travis Kelce was. The Bills went almost exclusively nickel near the end of the year in 2020, and Moehrig has the coverage skills to step in immediately, and replace Jordan Poyer after this season.

31. ravens: carlos basham

EDGE • Wake Forest

One of my favorite players in the entire class. Lost among the freak 40 times of under-producers like Jayson Oweh, Basham is a long-term contributor who put up on the stat sheet and ran a 4.59 of his own. At 274 pounds. He’s exactly the productive, experienced, big and strong edge the Ravens like, and he fills a bigger need than receiver.

32. bucs: jaelan phillips

EDGE • Miami

I sat next to Josh McDaniels on a plane once, and he told me he drafted Perrish Cox despite non-football-related concerns because “at some point a guy is so talented you take him no matter the risk.” Phillips and Cox have wildly different concerns, but the philosophy rings true, especially in Tampa where the risk is very affordable.